Once upon a time investor sentiment used have a time line that looked something like this;
Normal Greedy Scared-Sh*tless Wary Normal
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0 24 months 48 months 56 months 60 months 72 months
Now it looks something like this;
Scared Scared Sh*tless Greedy Suicidal Lustful Apocalyptic
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0 3 months 6 months 8 months 10 months 12 months 14 months
Just a few weeks ago, stocks were closing in on one of their best quarters ever, analysts were climbing over one another to highlight his or her favorite "green shoot", and investors seemed to be waving in as much risk as they could with both hands. I, being the cynical bastard that I am, didn't buy into it. I also didn't buy stocks which means I missed out on the great big rally. Luckily I have Richie, who stopped me from getting short in any significant way while his charts made him some nice coin.
Now? Except for CNBC's Dennis Kneale (We are still waiting for our invite to debate you on the air Dennis) no one is talking much about green shoots. The reality of job loss and housing horror is quickly taking hold, just like it did WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY back....four months ago! Investors have become like Faye Dunaway in "Chinatown".
"I'm happy." {SLAP!}
"I'm terrified." {SLAP}
"I'm happy." {SLAP SLAP}
"I Just soiled myself!"....
You want proof? The Treasury Department just auctioned $19 billion ten year notes today, not to be confused with the $19 billion they auctioned off last month...or the $19 billion they will auction next month. Guess what? It was the best auction Treasury EVER HAD! The amount of bids the Treasury got were 328% more than the amount of notes that were offered!! Just a month ago the 10-year yield was 4%. Now, with supply seemingly bottomless, we had a record auction with the yield at 3.30%!! Can you say, "Flight to quality."?
It's a real bad technical when investors get really confused because eventually they just curl up into a ball and hide. Bad things are coming and unfortunately Sheriff Obama and Deputy Larry and Tim used up all their bullets playing cowboys and indians. Rig the ship for heavy weather.
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