Now, some of you who follow the blog probably know that I have been shorting Lennar and Toll Brothers, the two biggest luxury home builders since last month. My basis is $20.11 and 14.11 respectively. They are up 3% and 1.2% on the "great" housing news. I just sold some more Toll Brothers at $20.20 and Lennar at $15.04!!
Check this out from our friends at Housing Doom;
I suppose if I were stuck on a desert island somewhere, I would want to be stuck with a bunch of housing analysts. If optimism helps you survive, these guys should guarantee it. How’s this for a strange conclusion:
“The worst has passed,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We expect prices to bottom out around the middle of next year and then look for modest price appreciation for the next several years. There is still a tremendous oversupply of homes in most major markets.”
Modest price appreciation coexisting with tremendous oversupply? I don’t think so. Not even with this conclusion about sales:
Read the rest Weak Analysis Finds Hope in Latest Case-Shiller Numbers.
Lemme try my hand with their 'logic'.
Because unemployment figures are typically a lagging indicator of economic health, I expect a dramatic reduction in unemployment as the Dow nears 10,000. You see, the Dow's 40% increase since March will drive new hiring!
Recession over!
Posted by: Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg | September 29, 2009 at 11:27 AM