MonkeyBusinessBlog

Anybody Remember Hank Paulson's Bazooka?

Remember back in the summer of '08 when Hank Paulson got the ok from Congress to set up a $200 billion emergency fund to take Freddie and Fannie into receivership?  Back then Hank assured Congress that this $200 billion "was like a big bazooka.  As long as the market knows you have it you won't have to take it out and use it."

 

I think we know how that turned out.

 

Now here we are with Greece and IT'S THE SAME DAMN THING!  From Bloomberg;

 

By Emma Ross-Thomas
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Europe’s week-old rescue plan for
Greece has so far failed to do what its leaders predicted:
reduce borrowing costs for the region’s most indebted country.
The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds has increased
24 basis points to 6.522 percent since EU leaders agreed to the
aid blueprint on March 25. That’s the highest in a month and
more than double the rate paid by Germany. Seven-year bonds sold
by Greece on March 29 fell for a second day today.
“What they were hoping for was to set up some sort of
arrangement that never has to be used,” said Phyllis Reed, head
of bond research in London at Kleinwort Benson, which manages
about $32 billion. “The markets have sniffed that out and it
seems like we’re heading back to square one.”

 

This is EXACTLY what I thought when the European leaders "emerged" from their little jam session last week and gave their modern day version of "Peace in our time!" announcement.  Nothing but words on a piece of paper that mean...............................nothing.

Last Call For McMansion Wannabes

I've heard all the "experts" talk about how the housing market won't be coming back again. Interest rates are going higher. Taxes are being raised, as are state and federal deficits. Foreclosures keep hitting the market. Jobs are gone forever. You know what we are gonna do then? Buy a residential dwelling. Crazy, right? Richie, you've lost your marbles, right? Good luck with that sucker, eh? The way I look at it, housing in a lot of markets has been a straight shot down for 4-5 years. Only recently, we've seen the national averages stop from dropping a little. Sure prices might continue to drop, but I think prices look a little more enticing. My guess is also that some of these chowderheads (technical term) in the Obama administration MAY have figured out that the economy aint coming back (and thus their asses get thrown out of office), UNLESS they get the housing market fixed. Now, on to the important business at hand.

So if I didn't personally contact you, please don't take it personally. I'm still getting into this 21st century method of communicating, called e-mail. But this is the last call for those who want to participate in what will be an internationally recognized media event, and we are calling the Monkey Business McMansion. With the interest we've had thus far, we might need to change it to the Mcmansion(s), the plural of McMansion. But as Tina Turner stated in the song "Proud Mary", we are gonna start out "nice and easy" and THEN we might get a little "rough". So we will start with 1 McMansion and then go for more. We have the selection of the 1st property narrowed down to a couple of choices and will be collecting the groat-ee (technical term I believe for "money") shortly. If you want to be one of the coolest kids on your block, and you haven't heard from me via e-mail, this is your last chance to get involved. Drop me a line at bensalzproductions@yahoo.com . Operators are standing by for your call.......um e-mail. Good luck to all of us.

If You Build it, Will They Come?

File this under the "horse's ass" column (technical term). First off, remember when I posted a few days ago that Shia LaBeouf ("The Beef") was not only an actor, but a wannabe hedge fund manager? Well the day after he gave his stock choice in the NY Post, "his" stock went down 13%. Don't quit your day job, bro.

Bloomberg.com has an article today "Downtown New York Towers Empty as Best Office Market Falters". It talks about how downtown Manhattan's commercial market was doing fine post 9/11. Now? Not so well. Well, I'm not so sure how well downtown Manhattan was ever doing post 9/11 if you strip out all the federal money that was given to prop it up. Now the 1) Feds have many more other "projects" to give money to, and 2) the financial companies that had space there are "consolidating".

The article then states how much more supply will be coming on the market downtown. Sounds like we know where demand is going. So from our Economics 101 class, when supply CRUSHES demand, where do prices go? Yep. Down the terlet (technical term). Though what I really love is how many asshats stand up and be quoted in these articles talking about "how its not so bad" or "we think we've hit a bottom". They usually work at places that profit from the market being better right? That's called wishful thinking. I mean if you called Shia "The Beef" right now wouldnt he REALLY, REALLY love his stock now that its down 13% from when he just REALLY loved it? In case you are counting my vote, I've got downtown Manhattan for sale in terms of real estate prices/rents. Maybe I'm wrong but maybe not.

You Need to Know How to Read Between the Lines

Dunno if some stock jockeys (technical term) decided to call a lot of media outlets today and show how "cheap" stocks are relative to junk bonds but I've seen about 4 different stories telling roughly the same thing. You see they have this thing called the earnings yield on the S+P, with the higher number being better. It is merely the inverse of the Price Earnings (P/E) number on the S+P. We have a P/E of around 17.5 today on the S+P so 1/17.5 = 5.71%. Junk bonds are yielding around 8.93% so that's a difference of 3.22% (8.93-5.71). This number is historically around 6% so people are jumping around saying stocks are REALLY cheap. I didn't see this counter argument in any of the articles so let me drop it in the discussion.....how about if junk bonds are just waaaaaaaaaay expensive? That would fix that ratio real quick if junk bonds crapped out too.

Hey, I'm long stocks as big I have been in awhile but I'm watching closely. There seems to be a lot of euphoria around the financial markets these days, right? Articles saying "stocks are crazy cheap" aren't exactly going to slow down that euphoria. Just wanted to make you stay even keeled throughout this whole situation. That all being said, we probably have a little more to the upside on stocks over the next few days and weeks but I'll be on it like white on rice. Or brown on rice which is a healthier type of rice so I am told.

Big Dick Back to the Baskets

Editor's Note--Well we all got a little bit of a thrill when CLASSY JET was leading for some of the race yesterday and made the final turn in a close third place only to get tired and fade. She was off for 2.5 months maybe she needed a race to get her "race legs" back. We'll see next time. But what is this? Big D is going back in to the deep end of the pool?!?--R.B.

Yes Richie, there was a little excitement in that filly's race yesterday. We wont give up on her just yet. Now for the hoops, doesn't it always seem like Coach Tom Izzo has his SPARTANS of MICHIGAN STATE playing late in March? Well it isn't always, but Izzo's got 5 Final Fours on his resume including last year where they got all the way to the final game. This year they lost one of their key players 2 games ago. That didn't stop them against the wannabe Cinderella, Northern Iowa. It isn't going to stop them today either. This is Tennessee's first trip to the Elite Eight and it's been a great run for them, but tournament experience is going to take over now. We guess the MICHIGAN STATE injuries are causing them to be underdogs? We don't care. TAKE MICHIGAN STATE + 2.

Here's to not getting some off the wall, insane, push against the spread like we have the last 2 forays into the NCAA. Good luck, and of course, god bless.  

Big D Will Rest On The Hoops. But The Horses......

Editor's Note--Big Dick is incredulous that another game was snatched from victory to a tie! That makes 2 of those PAINFUL pushes in less than 24 hours. Oy Vay! Today, he's got a horsie play that's near and dear to my heart though. Take it away Big D......--R.B.

After the 2nd night in a row of a BRUTAL push for his selections, Big Dick is going to pass on today's basketball card as he is emotionally spent--NEVER a good time to invest. If you have not been following the action, we had XAVIER who lost by 5 but had about 7 opportunities to win the game outright only to lose in double overtime to Kansas State on Thursday night. We were getting 5 points with XAVIER. No way we shouldn't have won that game and if they merely lost by 4 or less (extremely doable) we would've won. Instead, they lose by 5. Egads. Then last night, we had the UNDER with Duke/Purdue at 127. Well, 47 points were scored in the 1st half. 47! That means the only way we didn't win our wager was if they combined to score 80 points or more in the 2nd half. Impossible, in a game that is proving to be a defensive struggle, right? Nope. They scored 80. We pushed again. EXCRUCIATING. One little basket in both games costing us victories. Well at least we didn't lose.

So we play no hoops today but how about the return of the classy filly, CLASSY JET? When last seen, the formidable girl was taking a break after being a little sore and finishing 4th in a race back in January the experts thought she would win handily at Aqueduct Race Track in Queens, NY. Well today at around 5:15pm eastern time again at Aqueduct, the 3 year old young lady will run again in the 10th race for the familiar black and blue colors of the Richard B Bennett, Jr stables. Because there are some tough fillies in there with her, and she's been off for 2.5 months, she's listed at 10-1 in the morning papers. Richie tells us she's been training really well for this return. That's good enough for a SHOW bet (you win something if she comes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in a SHOW bet) for the #4 CLASSY JET in the 10th at Aqueduct today.

So tune in tomorrow to see if we have gotten an emotional rescue from the last few evenings of NCAA action. Today at around 5:15pm eastern just say: Race 10. Aqueduct. #4 to Show. Good luck and god bless.

"Long Balls Larry"

I was going to write a piece comparing the Greek debt crisis to the G7 banking crisis of 2008.  I was going to say that just like 2008 with the banks, many are incorrectly looking at the Greek (soon to be Portugal, and Spain) crisis and thinking that it is a "liquidity" crisis.  Remember 2008 with our banks?  If we can just keep those terrible short sellers at bay and buy some time, Lehman, Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wachovia, Wamu, Citi....sh*t, even AIG and GE Capital....will be ok.  Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae too.  They just needed liquidity.  How did that work out? 

Sure, it was a no brainer that they needed liquidity.  However, they needed liquidity because the market correctly viewed that the banks (and the soon to be banks like GE, American Express, etc) and GSEs had a SOLVENCY issue.  Their balance sheets were DREK, KAKKA, POOP (feel free to send in other related excrement terms!).  All the time in the world wasn't going to save them.  The only way to save them was to bail them out, which is what happened.

Now here we are with Greece.  They need to finance billions of debt coming due and the ECU and the IMF have concocted some sort of plan (we really have no idea how big the plan is, or what the terms are....but why get bogged down in details) to give Greece "liquidity".  Problem solved right?  Ummm, no.  The problem is the Greeks can't pay.  It's a SOLVENCY issue.  Even if all the Greeks in Greece decide to hold hands and take the BITTER fiscal medicine that Berlin (if there was any pretension that Berlin was not the real power in Europe, this latest episode has dispelled it) and the IMF are going to hand out, they just can't pay what they owe.  The fiscal "remedy" will throw Greece into a major depression and that means they  just won't be generate enough revenue to service their debt.  Of course we don't have to worry about that because the Greek people are going to tell Berlin, the IMF and any politician to stick it.  Check out what happened this past week in Latvia.  Their government was trying to implement the fiscal covenants handed down from their IMF rescue and the people just "dismissed" that government.

Anyway, I guess I ended up writing a piece on Greece!  Here is what I really wanted to share with you...because it's funny.

"We Tracked Big D Down"

Still grumpy from his 0-1-1 performance last evening, Big Dick merely says UNDER DUKE 127 and tune in tomorrow A.M. for more action! 

Calling All Speculators!

Warning: this is not for the faint of heart or those who aren't prepared to take BIG risk.

I know what I've said about financial stocks. How these financial companies "hide the salami" (technical term) and have crap on their books. But in this one case, I'm going to make an exception. I just bought the National Bank of Greece (ticker: NBG). Yes, you read that right. GREECE and BANK in the same company name. You might think I've been off the sauce too long and have gone loony. That might be true, but I am heart attack serious (another technical term) about making a quick short term play on this stock. Why?

Well for one my charts tell me to. These charts dont speak to me unless plenty of people are BUYING the stock already or at least have stopped selling. Next, tell anyone around you that you are thinking of buying NBG and see their expression. Assure them you have not gone crazy and let them know you LOVE to be a contrarian. Thats what I do. Finally, its become very clear that SOMEONE is going to save Greece right? It might be the IMF or the EU or the Germans or even the FU ( ok I made that one up), but you catch the drift.

Like I said, there's obvious risk here but I'm buying GREECE baby! NBG is the ticker. Get down!

Media Alert!

Well its Thursday, so it must be radio time! Join Eric and I once again on the thought provoking, always entertaining, and not just because we are on, Pete Dominick show on Sirius/XM today on the POTUS network! It'll be 5pm eastern on your Sirius Channel 110 or XM Channel 130. We'll be talking about a few things, one of which will be critiquing Pete's new role on "John King USA" every night on CNN at 7pm eastern. His segment is called "Pete On the Street", and that isn't Wall Street, but literally ON the street.  We Monkey Business Boys know a thing or two about being on Wall Street AND being ON the street so it should be a lot of laughs, like usual. Grab a friend, preferably a Communist, and tune in!   

Big Dick Is Here to Pick More Winners

Editor's Note--Big D was all over the Big Red of Cornell on Sunday which gave him a 2-2 weekend. Of course, we expect more from a classy professional such as he. Big Dick are you bringing it with more vigor this week?!--R.B.

Richie, that was a tough weekend, last weekend. We were able to pick two of the big surprises of the tournament, St. Mary's and Cornell, but couldn't put the other ones in the winning column. But don't fret. XAVIER is a team that always seems to be around in the NCAA tournament, right? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that they are like 16-5 as an underdog against the spread in the tourney. Tonight, they are an underdog, again. Why ask why? Take the MUSKETEERS of XAVIER.

In the highly anticipated match up of Cornell and Kentucky we are going to take a different path. The oddsmakers have hiked the TOTAL on that game to 147. That still isn't high enough. These are the 2 best offenses in the land. No one is going to stop either one for long spells of time. That points to an OVER in Big Dick's book.

So stay tuned tomorrow for some more Big Dick action! Tonight we play XAVIER +5 vs Kansas State and OVER 147 in Kentucky/Cornell. Good luck and god bless.

Sure Pal, Anyone Can Do It

The NY Post has an article today, "Shia's 'Slick' Tips" about how actor Shia LaBeouf (which means "the beef" in French) is now giving out stock picks. He's the actor that is going to be in the new Wall Street 2 movie with Michael Douglas that's coming out in the fall. I gather he is playing the new Bud Foxx role that Charlie Sheen played in the 1st one. Did you ever know any actors before they became famous? I knew a few. For the most part, they are FREAKS in real life! So it always astounds me that when they start talking about politics, or the environment, or just about anything, INCLUDING acting, people listen to them and think they are smart. Um, think about the whack job that you wouldn't give a pencil to back in high school. Those guys and gals are your actors in the majority. So when this assclown, "the beef", starts hopping around telling people he's got hot stock tips, and he's parlayed 20k into 450k, I think of 2 things, 1) bad infomercials, and 2) someone might want to call the SEC to check on where he's getting his information. As an aside, one of my favorite scenes in the original Wall Street was when Hal Holbrook plays the old timer in the brokerage shop and puts his arm around Bud (Sheen) and gives him the speech about how he likes him but he better watch his ass. Of course, Sheen ignores him, and then.......well.

So I would probably think of selling whatever this actor/stockpicker/full time assclown is telling you to buy. Besides, there's a lot of bad luck for the people involved in that original Wall Street. Kinda like a hex or an evil spell on them. For instance, the real estate lady in real life who was the inspiration for the real estate lady who sells Fox (Sheen) the fat pad he buys in the movie, was brutally whacked last year and the trial is going on presently. Darryl Hannah, who plays Bud's love interest, went on to allegedly get the bejesus beat out of her by her then boyfriend, singer Jackson Brown. Charlie Sheen, while still popular on TV, has had his freakishness (technical term) confirmed in many instances over the years and gets little slaps on the wrist. If you want to invest in something thats a sure thing, you make a bet that this Charlie Sheen "situation" will end badly sooner than later. Finally, Michael Douglas, who plays the masterful Gordon Gekko, has a kid who is gonna do 20 long in bad boy jail for being a large dealer of narcotics.

So Shia "The Beef" spare me your "easy" money making ideas while we mere mortals have to fight tooth and nail to make a buck. But feel free to give me your 5 best ideas and I'll sell them to you and lets see who does better, eh?   

Momma Always Said to Be Polite

We, on these pages, have often given kudos to Bill Ackman, who runs the hedge fund, Gotham Partners. If you don't believe we were out there saying the same things he was, regarding a few "choice" companies way back when, you can always check the archive section of the blog to your right. Well there's a new book coming out called "Confidence Game" by Christine Richard. We hope this business book is better than most of the the other "first hand account" business book drivel that has hit the bookstores over the last 18 months (oh and that have probably gotten a bunch of publishing guys fired, because they dont sell). As an aside, don't fret, WE'LL come out with a "different kind" of book someday that you will want to read. Anyhoo, bloomberg.com has an article today with an excerpt from this "Confidence Game" book called "Ackman's Greatest Short Ever Told Began With Handshake Refused".

The excerpt covers a meeting between Ackman and MBIA CEO Jay Brown in 2002. MBIA being the Municipal Bond Insurance Association that has blown to bitsies (technical term) in the last few years, insuring stuff that WASN'T municipal bonds. Mr. Brown wanted to meet with Ackman to "discuss" Ackman's shorting of MBIA stock and buying default protection to the tune of over $2bn. What's funny is in the meeting Brown and his lawyer told Ackman and his lawyer that MBIA "had friends in high places" so he better cut the crap. A good old school style shakedown!

We here at monkeybusinessblog.com caught the "wrath" of the MBIA folks too, at one point a few years back. Some e-mails from their counsel also telling us that they had "friends in high places". As I sit in the same outfit as I typed the other blogs about MBIA (t-shirt and boxers, bottled water to my right, stubby #2 pencil in my ear, XM radio blaring 70s music), I wonder how many friends in high places they have now. You see, as it turns out, there were NO falsehoods, we or Mr. Ackman, were stating about the company back then, and MBIA probably knew it. They started out as a really good, profitable company, tried to expand into something they didn't know, and got blown out of the water. Really simple when you break it down.  

The "Confidence Game" excerpt also states that as the meeting between Ackman and Brown ended, Ackman went to shake Brown's hand who passed and replied, "I don't think so." When MBIA was heading to the land of the dirt nap (another technical term), do you think Ackman showed any mercy? Um I think he stepped on their necks. Ah, another old school response! We love it! So, um MBIA lawyers, if you write me a letter stating for me to stop writing blogs about you again, you can guess my response. YOU should've been polite all those years ago when you had a chance.

Here's Some Cutting Edge Journalism.......Greek Style!

We hear at monkeybusinessblog.com like to poke fun and have a good time, sure. But when it comes to the nitty gritty of what's going down, we also feel like we hang with the best of em in terms of the REAL business news. My good pal, let's call him "Nick the Greek", just gave me this little tidbit that no one in the US press seems to be picking up on......yet.

You know how we've laughed at the Greek government for blaming and whining about "evil speculators" for their problems and not admitting they are spending too much and their financial house is not in order? Well we hear one of those "evil speculators" has been caught! Yes its true. Its none other than.......wait for it.......The Postal Bank of GREECE! Yep! Their President has been quietly "removed" from office (maybe society?!), after it was found that last summer The Postal Bank of Greece bought credit protection on the country of GREECE! That means they profitted if the country of GREECE went into the crapper (technical term). They didnt just buy a little. It sounds like maybe over $1bn of this credit protection or credit "insurance" was purchased. But wait, there's more.

So after word started getting out that the you know what was going to hit the fan, the Postal Bank of Greece sold that position and made more than $50mm! But wait there's MORE (said in my best Billy Mays informercial voice, god rest his soul)!!! You know who the main bank that was involved in the transactions of all this buying and selling of credit protection on the country of GREECE? One guess. Goldman Sachs!

Why dont you chew on this fact for awhile. One of the bigger "evil speculators" in the country of GREECE was one of its own banks! That profitted handsomely and probably has had their bank President quietly holed up in a dungeon now, PRAYING that this news doesn't get out in the press. You know how the National Enquirer is wanting a Pulitzer for that John Edwards story? Well we want OURS now. Many thanks to our source "Nick the Greek". You really cant make this stuff up.  

Doc-tor Love! They Call Him Dr. Love! Or a Banker

I almost fell out of my chair just now. I'm watching Bloomberg TV, which Page Six in the NY Post states today that the new network is trying to outdue its competition at FoxNews by hiring its own "foxy news babes", but that's not why I almost fell out of my chair. I was watching an interview with reality show star, Gene Simmons. He also had/has a career before the reality show stuff. He was the guy with the 2 foot tongue in the rock and roll band KISS. I was in the "KISS Army" back in the day, so I remember him.

Well anyhow, he apparently has an even NEWER career. He runs some outfit that will loan money to high net worth individuals (like himself). Gene said, "We've got $7 billion to lend high net worth people against their life insurance policies at LIBOR flat." The fact that he used the word LIBOR made me run to the bathroom. LIBOR is a big term in the loan markets and derivative markets which stands for the London InterBank Offered Rate. I can promise you Big Gene wouldn't have known a LIBOR from a ball bearing probably a week ago, and now he's talking like a banker! So all you former or current rock stars, athletes, and other rich folk, call Gene Simmons up! He's got a good deal for you! Give away your life insurance that your kids could use later, and spend it now. At LIBOR flat!

Ok I have to go now. You learn so much on TV and previously Fatter Al Roker has a show on The Weather Channel (now owned by Al's employer, NBC). He's interviewing currently fat Kirstie Alley and I might pick something up about Ring Dings or Yodels. If anything is relevant, I'll be back. You ever heard of the phrase, "boob tube"? A good name for TV.   

Big D Is Just Seeing Red

Well that was a disappointing Saturday going 1-2 and all. It makes us angry. As a matter of fact, we are seeing RED. As in BIG RED. As in, CORNELL BIG RED. Sure they are only getting 4.5 points versus the "beast" of the Big 10 (is that saying much?), Wisconsin. But CORNELL is a very dangerous team, that doesn't seem to be playing or acting like an underdog. Take CORNELL +4.5 versus Wiscy!

Big D Says "So Close. So Close but Yet So Far"

Editor's Note--Well that was a tough way to go 1-2 last night Big Dick. A couple of bounces and you would've gone 3-0. But there's plenty of tournament to go. Let's get back up on the gambling horse and ride into the sunset. Preferably, with a wallet that we can't close--R.B.

Yes, Richie, a bitter pill last night. Both SIENA and HOUSTON in the very midst of covering the spread only to be thwarted at the very end. GONZAGA was an easy winner. We don't look favorably on 1-2 days. Today we have 3 more college specials.

ST.MARY'S is one of those teams that no one has really heard of until they see them in March. Well it's March. Villanova looked great until about 3 weeks ago and then something happened. Big Dick is here to tell you that ST.MARY'S is a better team than Robert Morris and 'Nova could've easily lost that game to Robert Morris. We get 4.5 points for our troubles. Take ST.MARYS.

OHIO is +8.5 versus Tennessee. Let me repeat that. OHIO is +8.5 versus Tennessee. Um thats no respect. TAKE OHIO.

Finally, in the NIT, let's ride the hot NC STATE train at Uab. Getting 5 points.

So stay tuned tomorrow on this same bat channel around the same bat time for Sunday's selections! But for today: ST.MARYS+4.5 vs Villanova, OHIO+8.5 vs Tennessee, and NC STATE+5 @ Uab. Good luck and god bless!

No Ho's in Atlantic City.....Really?

It looks like the MGM/Mirage company is being forced to sell their 50% stake in the Borgata Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City, NJ. Apparently, the NJ Gaming Commission is aghast (aghast I say!) that the MGM/Mirage is doing business with reported organized crime figure Stanley Ho. See, MGM owns 50% of a hotel/casino in the Chinese island of Macau with the Ho family owning the other half. Not sure what this has to do with Atlantic City but I gather they have a big law against people being in organized crime and owning casinos. I did not make that up.

So the MGM/Mirage was given a choice by New Jersey. Either sell their stake in the Macau Casino or sell their stake in Atlantic City. Now I haven't been to their place in Macau, but I couldve bet you which one they were gonna choose to sellin about 3 seconds. Atlantic City, for the most part, is a dump. Now the Borgata is a nice spot, thats true, but my conspiracy theory hat just went on. What if the MGM/Mirage saw that Atlantic City is/was a dump, will be for awhile, and it might not be so great to own the "best house on the block" in a cesspool neighborhood? But if they sold their 50% stake in the Borgata in today's market, they might take a big loss. They can now go to their shareholders and say, "Yeah we took this big hit but it was the REGULATORS fault, for not wanting any Ho's in Atlantic City. Sorry." Maybe they even spark a shareholders revolt against New Jersey.

Call me crazy, but last I checked the MGM/Mirage has some pretty solid operations in Las Vegas (Bellagio, Mirage, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, etc). If you were worried a lot about the economy in Atlantic City, which people are, wouldn't you want to keep guys like MGM around who know how to make things work? Now the one good place they have there, the Borgata, is going to be sold to some other party? I smell a rat. Isn't this going to cost more jobs when the new entity that buys it, takes on debt, and has to "cut costs"?

Where are my Ho's?!? Well the Ho family is denying any organized crime affiliation. Sounds like there is gonna be a big, bad dice roll in this situation.

Now enjoy the hoops games.

Big D Asks Who the Expert is NOW?!?!

 Editors Note-- That was about the craziest day 1 in NCAA basketball tourney history yesterday. We saw a lot of interesting things. One that stands out particularly is that anyone who is referred to as James, Jim, or Jimmy will now be called "Jimmer", by Big D. I'm even thinking of changing my daughter and dog's name to Jimmer. Or calling everyone Jimmer. Today will probably be no different. We are ALL over this now Big D! Bring IT!--R.B.

 

So much for the bracketologists, biodegredabologists, and scientologists, saying there would be no upsets, eh? In our first game, in case you weren't seeing things right, the OHIO BOBCATS were GETTING 13.5 points, not LAYING 13.5 points last night. But even if they were LAYING 13.5, they still covered! Big Dick asks this question, "Is a game really a shocking upset, when one team is up by double digits virtually the whole game?" Um, we think not. Can't wait till Saturday's OHIO game!

 

In the nightcap, some of you actually won, some of you pushed, and some of you lost. We will count it as a loss with SAN DIEGO STATE but that is up for large debate. It is also up for a question, "When a player is diving for a ball on the ground, has the ball in his right hand while lying on his stomach on the ground, and other players are standing around him, can that player be called for a foul?" If you are in the SAN DIEGO STATE vs tennessee game, it can. Lets call it 1-1 and leave it at that. But today, we won't leave it at that.

 

The "experts" are now saying there is "pressure" for the first time on a 13 seed. That seed being SIENA. Since they won their first games, the last 2 years in the tourney, they are "expected" to win. Oh yeah? Well how come the bookmaker has them a 4 point dog to a team that hasn't covered a spread since their version of Larry Bird went out for the season, over 3 weeks ago? I'm of course referring to Purdue, who when last seen, lost by 30 points to Minnesota in the Big 10 tourney. Now the biggest expert of them all (not on TV.....for now), Big D, asks you, "Would you be shocked and incredulous if SIENA bashed Purdue like OHIO bashed Georgetown yesterday?" No, you would not. TAKE!

 

Quick! We know OHIO is the hottest team in the tourney, but who has the worst record versus the spread in the Big Dance? Time's up! It's Florida State. For some reason, they are favored versus GONZAGA. Sure GONZAGA got beat pretty good by St. Mary's in their conference final, but how did St. Mary's do yesterday versus a very formidable Richmond team? They won. GONZAGA, and their fine coaching staff, will make amends. Take!

 

Finally, congrats to TOM PENDERS who has now taken his 4th team to the NCAA tourney with loosey, goosey, HOUSTON. They don't play a lot of "D" but they score. Maryland doesn't play much "D" either, but they score. We smell a highly entertaining, racing up and down the court, kinda game for the nightcap. Oh the line? maryland -9. Really? This HOUSTON COUGAR bunch is HOT. TAKE!

 

We smell a 3-0 day today. At 2:30pm eastern, SIENA+4 vs purdue, at 7pm eastern, GONZ+1.5 vs fla st., and at 9:30pm eastern, HOU+9 vs maryland. Good luck, god bless, and check back tomorrow a.m. on www.monkeybusinessblog.com for more locks!  

If We're Going to Have an "SEC", Let's at Least Use the Right One!

How much lower can the Securities Exchange Commission ("SEC") go?  Beats the crap out of me.  Here's the latest Alarm Was Raised on Lehman's Accounting.

Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Reserve officials were warned by a leading Wall Street rival that Lehman Brothers was incorrectly calculating a key measure of its financial health months before its collapse in 2008, people familiar with the matter say.

Former Merrill Lynch officials said they contacted regulators about the way Lehman measured its liquidity position for competitive reasons. The Merrill officials said they were coming under pressure from their trading partners and investors, who feared that Merrill was less �liquid than Lehman.

To this stunning revelation, the window licker/paste eaters at the Securities Exchange Commission had this to say;

The SEC declined to comment beyond saying that the senior people at the unit that oversaw Lehman had left the regulator.

Whatever.  I give up.  We here at Monkey Business propose, if we are going to have an SEC how about we replace the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with an SEC that actually gives us year round entertainment and would probably provide the same level of securities regulation as the current SEC....and maybe even better!  Ladies and gentlemen....the NEW SEC for America;

Media Alert!

Ahhhh its Thursday and while you might be watching intently on the March Madness that is the NCAA basketball tournament, there is a bit of a lull in the action around 5pm eastern. So tune into the always informative and funny Pete Dominick show on your Sirius and XM radio dial. Pete will feature me and Eric on the 5pm eastern hour. We will chat all things monkey business. So that's 5pm Eastern today. Sirius Channel 110 or XM Channel 130. Then you can go back to watching your baskets. Enjoy.

Let's Get the Priorities Straight

Editor's Note--Sure we can talk about the guys at Blackstone, who are Republicans, who are hosting a fund raising dinner tonight for Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party (there are names for people like the Blackstone guys AND Nancy Pelosi but this is a family oriented blog), or we could talk about how Uncle Bernie Madoff got a good beatdown in prison, or chat about stocks continuing to go up for the longest winning streak in over 15 years, or we could even talk about Jim Cramer's thestreet.com being investigated by the SEC, but why would we waste time on all of that today, when March Madness is here?!?! Who will be your Cinderella team? Fill out your bracket sheet yet? Hurry up. You have about half an hour! We know who is driving Cinderella's carriage though. It's Big Dick of course! He will lay his predictions down for us today thru Sunday, and hopefully, throughout this grand spectacle known as the "NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament" . Take it away Big Dick!

 

 

Thank you Richie and we are all quite excited here for the "Big Dance". Lets get right to it!

 

Everybody talks about the Big East and the other "power" conferences to do the bulk of the damage this year. Saw a lot of the so called "experts" say there will be very few upsets this year. Oh yeah? How about the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament last week when 3 of the 4  "big dogs" went bye-bye in the 1st round? How about that?

 

The action will be furious all day today but we have set our sights on tonight. Quick! Who is the hottest team in college hoops right now?!? Time's up! The OHIO BOBCATS! Yep from that little conference known as the MAC (for long time readers, a Big D favorite!). They take on the big bad Georgetown Hoyas tonight at around 7pm eastern. Big D knows the Hoyas have a good team, but this Monroe kid aint no Pat Ewing. The line? 13.5. Don't you think the score might be in the 60s in this game? 13.5 is a gift for the, 12-1 last 13 versus the spread, hottest spread team in the land. Go OHIO U! 

 

In the nightcap, another good reputation team, the Tennessee Vols lay a mere 2.5 points. What? These are the SEC Tennessee Volunteers? Yes they are. Every sucker in the world will bet them. This SAN DIEGO STATE AZTEC team has been no joke this whole year. To win the conference tourney versus Unlv (also in the Big Dance) AT Unlv is no small feat. This is precisely what SAN DIEGO STATE did last week.  A gritty defensive squad with a rising star named BILLY WHITE, this is an "old school" selection if Big D ever saw one. Don't be alarmed by the small line, just TAKE! 

 

So welcome to the tournament, enjoy the all day champagne and lobster, and stay tuned again of course tomorrow.......Tonight OHIO+13.5 vs G'town and SAN DIEGO ST+2.5 vs Tennessee. Good luck and god bless.

Reminder: Madness Tomorrow

Wall Street trading will drop quite a bit tomorrow and Friday afternoon as we get the 1st round of the NCAA tournament starting up at around 12:15pm eastern on both days. I used to love those reports that would come out around this time of year that would show the drag in job productivity whenever the NCAA tournament happened. I haven't seen a report like that this year though. Maybe its because there are no jobs to even have a productivity.

Anyway, the grandest prognosticator of them all, Big Dick, from Big Dick's Picks, will grace us with a guest blog tomorrow, Friday, and throughout the weekend for your sports investing pleasure. After all, stocks are just going to the moon everyday from now until eternity, so that part of your portfolio is fine (for those of you new to the blog, you might guess I'm saying that a bit sarcastically). All kidding aside, another strong day in the stock markets as inflation looks like its dormant. It will rear its ugly head at some point, but I guess for now we just enjoy the ride up, up, up.

Hope you parade revelers brought your sunscreen! Wasn't it less than 2 weeks ago that we got pelted with like 250 inches of snow in the northeast?  Not today. Im going out in my car now with the windows down, the radio up, and the shades on. I'm not gonna go anywhere though because its like a parking lot on every street in Manhattan due to all the street closings. But I will bob my head to the music and fist pump with the car in park. This is how I do it.  Enjoy.

Are You Feelin Lucky, Punk?.........I Am.

Happy St Patty's Day to all!! Even those who don't celebrate with an adult beverage in their hand. Stocks are up again. Ho hum. I guess there's just one way these stocks want to go. Damn the bad business news and politcal news and news news. That's why we follow charts here. Takes the emotion out of it. If I didnt follow charts, and didnt own a boatload of ticker SSO right now, I'd be going to the doctor for blood pressure pills. Now? I feel like at least 20 bucks. Maybe even 50. Good times. Don't sell that SSO yet, my comrades. Watch it go higher and higher. For now.

A hearty thank you to those who have responded about the Monkey Business McMansion. I am going to reply to all of your questions shortly. We also have had some readers send in not only that they are interested in investing in the project, but also, they have found some potential investment opportunities. This is all being taken under advisement. Can't wait till we become very rich and it will all be documented right on these very pages. Not like one of those infomercials with Carlton Sheets, but real life stuff. Its almost too late to join up, but if you want to play in the Monkey Business McMansion, and I haven't replied back to you, drop a line to bensalzproductions@yahoo.com . Our e-mail representatives are awaiting your mails.

Sorry For The Tardiness

Got roped into a few things today, some of which were kind of interesting. Parent/teacher conference, getting out of jury duty (I said I had important business overseas), etc. Tomorrow I'll be more focused on blogging. The markets keep grinding higher I see. Maybe the Fed can keep interest rates at 0% forever. Um, maybe they can't. Our SSO position continues to march forward which is nice. An early Happy St. Patty's Day to all you Irish or Irish wannabes. It ought to be some spectacle in most parts of the country tomorrow as the weatherman (weatherperson?) looks like he is going to be very kind. The good weather always brings out the sickos and amateur sickos. As for me? I think I'll stay in on amateur day/night. I mean after all I'm not drinking until after Easter. Also looking forward to Thursday when the NCAA basketball tournament kicks in and we get a few appearances from a Mr. Big Dick! So.....Kiss Me! I'm 1/4 Irish. 

Mom Still Knows Best

A quick post here.  The "Hurricane Without a Name" that blew through the Northeast this past weekend blew the family and I right out of Connecticut and back to living at home with Mom on Long Island.  We lasted about one day without power until I just said, "F this, everybody pack up and get in the car, we're going to my Mom's."  My main reason for running out of Connecticut? How is this for irony?  It was Sunday afternoon and I really wanted to see HBOs, "The Pacific".  I couldn't take one or two days without power or heat (and mind you, I'd be exaggerating if I said the house got colder than the mid 50's) because I had to go watch a TV show about a generation of men who gave up EVERYTHING to save the world.  There's gotta be something wrong with that!

Anyway, I digress.  I'm sitting in Mom's dining room early this morning, trading my little trading book and as has been the case nearly every morning the last two weeks, I'm up pretty decently.  The problem has been, by around 2pm everyday, the various things I am short tighten up and I end up battling to a stalemate at best.  So I'm sitting in front of the computer, Mom gives me a cup of coffee and this conversation takes place;

Mom: "So how are you doing?"

Me: "Ah, I'm up...for now."

Mom: "What do you mean, "for now"?

Me:  "I don't know.  It's been a tough couple of weeks. My positions start off pretty well early in the day but by early afternoon, I end up flat at best."

Mom: "So, why don't you just sell everything?"

Me: "What do you mean?"

Mom: "I mean, if you're up now and you're just waiting to be down a few hours from now.....why don't you just sell everything now and then start over again tomorrow?"

Me: "Well, it's a little more complicated than that."

Mom: "Why is that?"

Me: "It just is."

Mom: "Ok.  I'll leave you alone."

I've just kind of been staring out the window ever since!

NutriSystem Is Getting Skinnier But That Ain't Good

It has been brought to my attention that one of the worst performing stocks of 2010 is NutriSystem, Inc. (ticker: NTRI). This struck me as a little odd since the time of year that a lot of people make funny little New Year's resolutions is around......January. A lot of those resolutions have something to do with weight loss. Which is NutriSystem's bag. So what's up?

Well, I must admit, since I can afford to lose a few lbs. (hey, who among us can't?), I've tried the NutriSystem product for a month. It definitely worked. Lost some weight. Felt better. Maybe not as much or as good as guys like Dan Marino or Lawrence Taylor or Mike Golic but it worked. (I got a little hint about those guys, and anybody else who is a "celebrity spokesman" for these kinds of things. They are also working out about 2 hours a day with a NutriSystem sponsored trainer to MAKE SURE they look good when they do those "before and after" photos.)

However, the thing ain't necessarily cheap. Its about $400 a month and they might've just gotten pinched by the economy. Many of you might say, "Geez, Richie, that works out to about $13 a day, that ain't that bad." No its not, but people have a problem coughing up that kind of cash upfront I think these days. Could be a marketing problem at the old "fat farm". They also probably pay these "celebrity spokesmen" a few dollars too. Someone also told me its not selling well in places like Wal-Mart or Walgreens due to the cost of the program, but it is doing Ok at Costco where there are more affluent shoppers. That made me feel good since I am a member at Costco and dont really go to Wal-Mart or Walgreens. But from my trips to Costco, I'm not sure I'd call people there, affluent. But, I digress.

I'm gonna keep an eye on this stock for a bit. No, I don't think I'd buy it yet, but I think it will be attractive soon when they get their house in order. I can't say I miss the "Pasta Parmesan" that you just add boiling hot water to, and that's dinner, (those who have served in the military might think of the term "MRE" right now, or without the acroynm, Meals Ready to Eat.) but like I said, the program did work. Maybe they should sponsor this blog and we could help them with their "before and after" photos. It wouldn't be the worst thing they could do. Just a thought. Let's watch ticker NTRI for a bit. Put that Twinkie down.  

How Do You Say "Repo 105" in Greek?

Richie has already done a splendid job on the whole "evil speculators are ruining us" bullsh*t flowing out of Europe with regard to Greece...and Portugal.....and Spain...and Italy....etc...  I just want to pile on too!

Umm,  no asshats.  Speculators haven't ruined you.  You have ruined yourselves by running your countries like a decade long frat party and by lying about your finances.  Holders (the majority whom are European banks), of your country's debt have done some quick math, keeping in mind that credit ratings from Moody's and S&P are worth bubkis, and have decided, "These guys aren't going to be able to pay us back.  Please bid a billion of this garbage!" Wash Rinse Repeat, Wash, Rinse, Repeat..

How ironic it is then that the story of another band of chuckleheads has reared its ugly head today, "Repo 105" In Focus. Ahh, I knew Dick Fuld should have left the country a looooooooooooooong time ago.  Erin Callan too.  (Another great senior hire by Credit Suisse by the way........hah hah!!!!).

To maintain favourable ratings from the credit ratings agencies, Lehman engaged in what was referred to internally as “Repo 105,” a sort of window-dressing which involved getting $50bn of assets off the firm’s balance sheet at the end of both the first- and second-quarter balance sheets, the report said.

When Lehman first began engaging in such window dressing in approximately 2001, the firm could not get a US law firm to sign off on the transactions, which led Lehman to conduct these repo transactions out of its London unit, with the blessing of a UK law firm, the report said.

A Lehman senior vice president raised questions about the propriety of these transactions as early as May 2008, but the report said that the accountants at Ernst & Young “took no steps to question or challenge the non-disclosure of its use of $50bn of temporary, off balance sheet transactions.

Ahh, remember back in the Spring of 2008 when Dick Fuld stood tall in the pocket and LIED HIS ASS OFF about how solid Lehman was.  How he and Callan said the firm was "De-leveraging and De-risking"?  Well, anybody who knew anything about the goings on in the structured credit market (also known as The Sausage Factory) said "Bullsh*t!", went to their E-Trade account and short sold the crap out of LEH, as well as FRE and FNM and all the other lying a-holes.  In response to this, Fuld ran to mommy, Hank Paulson and his great aunt, Chris Cox and said, "The short sellers are hurting our firm...make them stop!"  And so the collective dingbats who ran things back in 2008 obliged DICK and outlawed short sales on 19 financial companies.  And most of them failed, or should have failed (hi Goldie!!) anyway!  They failed of course because their balance sheets were GARBAGE.

Now, here we are in 2010 and we are getting the same crap about Credit Default Swaps and Greece.  Scary isn't it?  They (the aggrieved parties) are using words like "contained" again.  They are also using the scoundrel's refuge of choice...blame the speculators. These are the same guys who fraudulently cooked their books to issue debt at near risk free rates.  Funny how that seems to be forgotten.  I guess 3 weeks is a long time.

So now I can't buy protection on Greece or any other country for that matter.  Great.  Let's see what happens to Europe.  You think things are going to calm down and get better?  Of course not.  Just like the loans and the bonds were bad in 2008, the sovereigns are just as bad.  Time isn't going to help anything, especially when Ari and Stavos are willing to lay their lives on the line for their 4 hour work week, their yearly "bonus" and their early retirement and full pension....paid in Euros!  Who is going to bail all these clowns out?  Let's say Germany and France do it.  What's going to happen to their banking systems (which, in case you forgot, are still a mess from 2008) when they take on, or restructure the PIIG's (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece) debts?  I'm going to bet that they won't be making a whole lot of loans to the productive members of Europe because they'll be too busy running around trying to enforce unenforceable covenants, negotiating with their governments and the PIIG's governments to take some or all the losses, etc, etc...  Between that (and if the governments of Germany and France do the bailout, it's more or less the same thing) and Southern Europe shutting down 3 business days a week for national strikes and protests, what do you think happens to Europe's GDP?  I'm going to bet it goes.....down.  And if the world's second largest economy goes down, and the rest of the world is already in dicey shape...let's just say it's not a good thing.

It's Miller Time!!!!  Have a nice weekend.

"Hey Rocky...Watch Me Pull a Rabbit Out of My Hat!" Mortgage Modification Program Going as Planned.

From Bloomberg News;

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- More than 250,000 of the 1 million
borrowers who have received trial loan modifications through th
Obama administration’s chief foreclosure prevention plan have
either dropped out or been removed from the program through
February, the Treasury Department said.
Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the lender
in the Home Affordable Modification Program successfully
converted 168,708 trial plans into permanent loan modifications
up from 116,297 through the end of January, the Treasury said
today in a report. More than 666,000 borrowers were in trial
repayment plans, Treasury said.
The program, announced more than a year ago, is short of
the 3 million to 4 million at-risk homeowners Obama targeted.
About 2.82 million U.S. homeowners lost their properties to
foreclosure last year and 4.5 million filings are expected in
2010, RealtyTrac Inc. said last month.

In a million years you couldn't make this stuff up!

Slots-A-Fun, No?

Don't know if you've been following this mess in New York State that is being called "government", but its interesting to say the least. In 2001, the New York State Legislature approved slot machines to operate at Aqueduct Race Track in Ozone Park, Queens. Yes, I said 2001. It's 2010, they still dont have them. But places like Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, and yes, even upstate New York have them. They pour money into the state's much needed coffers, and they also increase purses at horse tracks, which last I checked, also employ plenty of people, too. So, what's up?

Well part of the stipulation for a "racino" (horse track with a casino, get it?) operator at Aqueduct was to have the operator fork over $300mm upfront to run the thing. $300mm is a lot of wheat. Wouldn't any political party want to get its grubby paws on $300mm right now, not to mention an ongoing  "vig" (technical term) in the form of a nifty tax on the amount of money pumped into each slot machine? But this is New York State, baby and today we are finding out we are going to keep waiting for the slots, and therefore much needed revenue, while other places (like West Virginia!) laugh at New York.

See the Governor, who is legally blind, made a deal with his boys in Queens, and has allegedly rigged the contest in favor of an outfit called Aqueduct Entertainment Group (AEG). Everyone seemed to be calling "bullspit" on this one and voila the legislature said that they can't grant a license to these assclowns. Now we are back at square one. After 9 years. And tons of time and taxpayer money. Sounds like D.C.! Unfortunately, I live in New York, so I get to pay for the assclownery in both locales, Washington D.C. and Albany, NY.  

What happens now? Well there was a man named Steve Wynn who had expressed interest in bidding on the project and then abruptly pulled out 6 months ago. Soon after that, the AEG group "won". My guess is Steve knows a few things about backroom dealings and assclowns and probably muttered something like "if ANYONE in these negotiations is gonna be an assclown, it's gonna be ME!" Then he left. Mr. Wynn is legally blind now as well. I think despite them both being blind, the Governor and Mr. Wynn start to see eye to eye real soon. Look, Wynn saved Vegas 20 years ago, maybe he can do a little bit to help New York. After all, he might be legally blind, but he has more vision than almost all these assclown politicians put together. Ding! Ding! Ding! Thats the sound of a slot machine. Good luck to us.