MonkeyBusinessBlog

"What Do I Know About Pork Bellies?"

In my "new" line of work I tend to have CNBC on a lot more than I used to.  Every time I hear or see this commercial I can't stop laughing.  What could go wrong with trading commodities on your own?

John Thain? CIT? Why the Hell Not Right?

Here's what comes to mind when I think of these two jackasses coming together.

The Politics and the Football

Sorry for the late post. I was a little "UNDER" the weather. Get it? I played the UNDER like Big Dick said and at about 11pm last night, I knew I was going to be UNDER the weather today! The old cocktail flu. Chicken wings too. Washed down with a nice victory cigar. Good times.

Watched the pre-game to the Super Bowl yesterday. All the stories and drama. Then CBS (some say that stands for the Communist Broadcasting System) flips from the field in Miami to the White House Library with Katie Couric and the President. Live. With that, people start BOOING in the bar! Now, I know you might find it hard to believe but this was not some right wing bar I was hanging in. As a matter of fact, I was sipping on some nice $2 drafts all day (and all night), and I only knew the gang I was with (and the lady bartender, of course). Shocked me. And I dont even know what the 2 "newsleaders" said because they made the bartender turn on the jukebox and people started dropping money in it like it was a loose slot machine.

It kind of reminded me of another story about the "news" and football. Did you know that in the last 40 years, 60 Minutes (that hard hitting leftist documentary show on Sunday nights) has been in like the top 20 of all shows weekly for 35 of those years. Wanna know why they didnt make it the other 5 years? Um because CBS didnt have the NFL. I try not to make these things up people. Check it out. So 60 Minutes gets viewers basically because J.S. Ragman watches his football and is either happy or angry at the end of the game and goes in the other room for a belt of scotch and keeps the TV on! Think about that. Maybe 60 MInutes should do a story about that.

I also bet CBS might think twice before they have that "exclusive" interview next time during the Super Bowl. I don't think the voting public cared for it. Oh stocks are down again. So is job creation. Good luck with the healthcare.

The Difference Between Recession and Depression.

With regard to my title, I know the old joke, "The difference between a recession and depression is, a recession is when your neighbor loses his job.  A depression is when YOU lose your job!"  While this is true, Jim Rickards was on CNBC this morning telling us what the real difference is.  I like the whole clip but if you want to avoid that Ted Koppel like look that Becky Quick seems to always have on her face, pick it up at 4:32.

Before you get to that though, a great Super Bowl joke from MY PRIEST yesterday!

"A woman goes to the Super Bowl alone and sits down in her seat.  As the stadium starts filling up, people around her realize that she is sitting next to the only empty seat in the joint.  A nice guy behind her says, "Wow, that is so strange to see an empty seat at the Super Bowl."  The woman says, "Yes, actually this was supposed to be my husband's seat.  He and I were lifelong Saints fans.  We bought these seats months ago.  Unfortunately, my dear husband passed away."  The man behind her say, "Oh, that is so sad.  I'm so sorry.  But as long as you had the empty seat, didn't you want one of your friends or family to come with you to the game and enjoy it with you?"  The woman said, "Well, I tried to invite at least ten of them but they all insisted on going to the funeral!"

Anyway, here is the Rickards clip;

Big Dick Delivers As Promised!

Editor's Note--First off, its good to see "Big E" Salzman get down and dirty this SUPER weekend on two nifty, no holds barred, blogposts you can see down below. You tell em "Big E"! Now we've got the great prognosticator "Big D" delivering on his promise for a little basketball action while we wait for the "Big Game" at 6:25pm eastern time, 12:25 pm in Oahu. All this excitement is causing me to hyperventilate! Plus, I'm feeling good off of some of MY very own predictions in the markets last week. I even watched the VH1 special about the history of "Soul Train" last night. So now I'm doing "The Robot". We can only be so lucky to have a life like Don Cornelius, host, creator, and executive producer of "Soul Train". And lord knows we are trying! Take it away Big Dick!--R.B.

At 6:25pm eastern tonight in Miami, Florida most of the world will be watching, as the two best teams in the NFL this season square off. We have already said our piece on this with a nice UNDER play in our bag of tricks. This is a grass field people. Which means the game moves a little slower than turf. Which means 56.5 points is a WHOLE lotta points.

 

As promised, we would switch to basketball as well today. Alas, due to a lower than normal card of games for this Sunday, we have one selection. But it's a goodie. You would think a name like the UNIVERSITY of SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS would be a team from South Florida yes? Well you would be wrong. They are from Tampa. But we bet some of these basketball guys are miffed that they can't attend the Big Game in Miami tonight with all their mates (guaranteed, if you think of college years, the "road trip" from Tampa to Miami would get done for this if you were in school in Tampa, right?). You know who isn't upset about this? The USF hoops coach. Yep his team flew into Indiana (oh the irony!) last night. No problem worrying about curfew and a team being focused in the middle of a snowstorm in South Bend, Indiana to play an important game the next day, while people partied it up in the real South Florida.

 

Yep USF plays the always public favorite Notre Dame today at noon eastern. You think some of the giddy Colts fans all over the place aren't talking about how they can make a quick buck during the pre-Super Bowl parties by backing their beloved Irish from Indiana? Well Big D has 2 words for you: DOMINIQUE JONES. This BULLS of USF team might not know geography (Tampa is in WEST-CENTRAL Florida with the maps that Big D owns), but they know hoops. And they have won 4 in a row (last one beating the pants off a good Georgetown team), covered 6 in a row, and are looking like a very logical choice for an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. Oh and we know how good Nd is at home. But.....you wanna know the line? Nd-7.5. Thank you bookmaker. Thank you. Too many pal.

 

So enjoy the pomp and circumstance and YOU will be the one with a few extra bucks at those pre-parties when you take USF+7.5 @ nd. Then when you follow it up with an UNDER INDY/NO 56.5 tonight, you will be sitting in champagne city. Good luck to all and god bless on this SUPER day!

Kevin Bacon Agrees to Play Tim Geithner in the Upcoming Movie "A Few Bad Men"!

This morning I was reading this on Bloomberg Geithner Says US Will Never Lose its Aaa Rating.

Timmy's stake in the ground about our Aaa rating isn't really what struck me.  Afterall, what the hell is any government official supposed to say to that question right?  No, what gets me is the following responses to these extremely weighty questions.  Here are some examples;

 Geithner said investors around the world turn to U.S. Treasury securities and dollar-denominated assets whenever they are worried about global stability. That reflects “basic confidence” in the U.S. and its ability to bounce back from the global recession, he said.

Umm, no.  The recent spike in the dollar and Treasury securities is because the world was scared sh*tless this week that the almighty Eurozone is ready to implode.  This move is a knee jerk reflex.  Except for a few dingbats in Washington and the Wall Street mob bosses that Timmy really works for, this government, much like the last group of grab-asstic morons who ran things, haven't inspired squat.

Geithner said the risk of a “double dip” recession in the U.S. has declined, particularly given recent reports showing the economy grew at a 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter of last year.

“We have much, much lower risk of that today than at any time over the last 12 months or so,” Geithner said. “We are beginning the process of healing.”

Right Tim.  The official BS (that's stands for BullSh*t) BLS report showed the unemployment rate for January dropped to 9.7% because the freaking denominator dropped.......because millions of folks have given up looking for work....because their jobs were based on a fantasy "service economy" that is now.....gone.  But what the hell, who needs jobs, disposable income, a place to live and health-care?  It's all good....the Chinese are pulling us out of this mess right?  I mean, don't get me wrong.  I'm happy that Q4 growth was positive and that some companies are starting to make new capital investment and are done laying workers off.  However, most of the companies doing that, namely manufacturers, just don't represent a large enough percentage of the economy.  We turned our economy into a Potemkin Village and now we are paying the price.  Therefore, I'm afraid that this Q4 growth just isn't sustainable and dopes like Geithner really don't get that.

Geithner defended the Obama administration’s efforts to help homeowners avoid foreclosure through subsidized mortgage modifications. When asked why few homeowners have so far received permanent reworked loans, the Treasury chief responded that the administration is “absolutely committed” to following through on its promises.

“For eligible Americans -- they’re getting permanent modifications that substantially lower their monthly payment,” he said. “For the average household that translates into hundreds and hundreds of dollars every month for them.”

What is this assh*le talking about?  Mortgage modifications have probably on average hurt folks more than they helped....and that's for the few that actually got a permanent modification.  These fools have been at this...kind of...for a year and they have accomplished NOTHING because they understand NOTHING!

Anyway, that's enough of the rant.  When I'm not thinking of Geithner as "Beavis" I think of him as this fabulous character played by the great Kevin Bacon;

I Miss My Bonus.....But That's About it.

Ahh, it's bonus time on Wall Street.  Time has certainly flown by for me.  It occurred to me that it has been nearly three years since I shaped up for the "big year-end meeting".  Usually I was sitting across the table from some guy I thought was a complete D-bag (one time it was a female D-bag).  The D-bag would talk and as far as I was concerned he might as well have been Charlie Brown's teacher.  Remember that from "Peanuts"?

Teacher: Blah blah blah...blah blah blah

Charlie Brown: "Yes mam."

Teacher: "Blah blah blah bla-bla!"

Charlie Brown: "Yes mam, school is no place for a dog. I'll bring him home now."

Teacher: "Blah-blah."

Until they got to the number.  I would get the number and then I would become the D-bag.  Not to the bossman's face....except one time.  No, I would wait till I got outside and I would call the missus and start bitching about "how I got screwed...blah blah...."  I didn't think I was a D-bag back then.  I thought I was an undervalued, unappreciated "asset".  Now that I look back at it, I know I was beyond a D-bag (last time with that word!) back then.

I usually got handed a check that was bigger than 5 or 10 of my Dad's yearly paychecks combined and it pissed me off that it wasn't enough.  Afterall, all Dad did was educate kids.  What did I do?  Looking back on it now I don't have a freaking clue!  I pushed pieces of paper around, thought about "big thoughts", explained why one piece of sh*t bond was better or worse than another..etc...etc.  In the end I hated it, which may explain why I got my ass canned in late '07.  It was probably written all over my forehead. 

Actually, I liked trying to figure out things regarding bonds,interest rates, economics and all that other-mother jazz out (a little Francis Albert Sinatra there for ya!).  I just got sick of the whole idea of what banks had become.  All the "clever" boys and girls had taken over.  Clever people figure out how to feed you chicken sh*t and make you think their feeding you chicken-cordon bleu. They don't actually add value.  Rather they subtract value from others, put it in their pocket, and keep doing it until they can't anymore.  And then they go on to something else.  When I hear people say that Goldman Sachs is "the best" Wall Street firm....they are right.  However, I'm not sure in the greater scheme of things if it's a compliment!  In fact, I'm pretty sure it's a pretty big insult.  At least in my mind it is.  The bullsh*t that they run over in that joint boggles the mind.  If you really pinned them down and made them explain how they make their money....how they REALLY make a good bulk of their money...it's a game of robbing Peter to pay Lloyd.  Wash, rinse, repeat. 

When I think back to where I worked in the end of my institutional Wall Street career, the memory gets colder and harsher every day I get away from it.  As the great Mike Ness would say, "colder than a pimp's heart."  Even better, I had a good friend on Wall Street who fought in a war.  He said to me one day, "Eric, I've been to war and I've seen the best and worst in man.  Here on Wall Street, I've only seen the bad."

Don't get me wrong, I love a lot of the people I became friends with in my old career.  However, when I think back to to the last two shops I got recruited by (I did a little stint at a regional in '08 that doesn't count.  I tried to go back and I just couldn't do it anymore....and yes, I used to actually get recruited to go places!) I remember they both made a point of telling me that, "The Ass-h*le Factor here is pretty low."  Firstly, they were lying because there were PLENTY of assh*les.  Secondly, any industry that uses the relative "Assh*le Factor" of a particular firm as a selling point is essentially telling you that there's an exceptionally large concentration of assh*les in that particular industry!

Anyway, I miss the bonuses I got for doing Lord knows what.  I realize now it was like winning the lottery.  As for the rest, well....not so much.

Big Dick Is Ready for All Sports

Editors Note-- Well sportsfans, its like Christmas for you football folks. Sunday is the best day of the year. I can't even imagine what its like in Indy or New Orleans. Actually I can because I was with Big Dick in Indy 2 weeks ago when the roof almost came off the Lucas Oil Field. He lost that game but Big D's still firing away with a selection for Sunday. Show us the money, Le Grande Deek--R.B. 

One of the paparazzi stopped me with a microphone and a camera the other day in Midtown Manhattan. Without even hearing the question, I put my hand up and said, "No comment" and walked on. I'm of the ilk where "NO publicity is good publicity." They followed me down Park Avenue and screamed, "Big Dick we KNOW you have hit your last 5 Super Bowl predictions. Can't you give us a prediction THIS year?!?!" But I just kept on walking and smiling. Good thing YOU are not the paparazzi, yes?

 

The news of success didn't surprise me. Unfortunately, 2 weeks ago we lost with GANG GREEN. It looked real good there for 28 minutes but there are 60 minutes in football. While sitting with JET fans in a luxury box at Lucas Oil Field in Indy, sipping champagne and having lobster fricasee, I explained to my fellow fans, how at the end of the first half with the JETS up 17-6, if the defense could hold Mr. Manning to a FG or less in the last drive, they would win the game. If not, they would lose. We all know how that turned out.

 

Sunday is just another game in the handicapping world as far as Big Dick is concerned. But we know, we know, people get charged up. Although the greatest SUPER Sunday that we can recall was back when Green Bay laid 14 to a Bill Parcells New England team. Big D exclaimed from Vegas that day, "the game is too close to call and we are passing but here's an NBA 3 team parlay that will have your pockets filled come kickoff time!" And you know what? The parlay came in, the score of the game was 35-21, and thus a push, and just about everyone was grumpy in the Mirage VIP Suite (including the house that doesn't win on a push either), except for Big Dick and his followers.

 

For those who tune into this channel on Sunday, we will have some basketball selections for SUPER SUNDAY. However, we DO have a selection for the football this year.

 

Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Are they the most frequently used words these 2 weeks or what? Well, from my perch in Indiana 2 weeks ago, it certainly looked interesting when Manning was OFF the field. Especially in the 2nd half. Brett Favre may have made some mistakes but the Saints defense seems to be collecting a lot of turnovers all season. The game itself is fairly priced in our eyes but the TOTAL isn't. Here's a little ditty for you. Both teams have played 18 games this year. Wanna know how many games the Saints have had where the total score was 57 or higher? 8. So clearly a team that scores and gives up points. Now, wanna know how many times the Colts have gone over 57? 3. Yep. 3.

 

When the players were coming off the field 2 weeks ago, I heard one of the Colts defenders scream to the jubilant home fans, "I guess we got to see who has the best defense today." A clear jab to the J-E-T-S. But you know what? He was right.

 

Oh there will be fireworks on Sunday but they might be more from nice hits and tackles and that's why people may look at you peculiar when you tell them "Big Dick likes the UNDER and I'm going with him!" Let them laugh. After all, we have a history of being the only ones laughing in a room on Super Sunday at the END of the game. We know this goes against my theory of leaning towards the over whenever you see a total of 45 or more, but this is a special game. The Colts best pass rusher is questionable to play and that TOTAL of 56.5 hasn't moved. Hmmmm.

 

So: Stay tuned Sunday for some inaugural basketball picks from Big D and we will go UNDER 56.5 for the football. Pass the lobster rolls, fine vintage champagne, and of course good luck and god bless.